David Shelly
2022-09-14 14:10:07
Mendenhall Opportunity 21-20: Rapid, robust characterization of earthquake uncertainties to unlock advanced monitoring, forecasting, and researchhttps://www.usgs.gov/centers/mendenhall-research-fellowship-program/21-20-rapid-robust-quantification-earthquake
Earthquake monitoring forms the foundation of earthquake forecasting and research. Although overall earthquake monitoring capabilities have become increasingly sophisticated in the past decades, methods of uncertainty quantification, key to earthquake forecasting and other applications, have remained primitive. Currently, uncertainties in fundamental earthquake source parameters, such as location and magnitude, are not standardized and are usually derived only from misfit within a particular assumed model (also known as “model errors”) or from ad hoc, outdated approximations. Characterizations like these ignore significant sources of uncertainty and bias (such as from discrepancies between different magnitude types or errors in the velocity model) and often dramatically underestimate the total uncertainty. Current shortcomings in uncertainty quantification significantly impair impactful products that build upon earthquake monitoring and the associated catalogs, and perhaps less obviously, earthquake monitoring itself.
We seek applicants with strong quantitative skills. Experience in seismology and/or statistics highly beneficial.
Full project details and contact information:
https://www.usgs.gov/centers/mendenhall-research-fellowship-program/21-20-rapid-robust-quantification-earthquake
Proposed Duty Station: Golden, Colorado or Moffett Field, California
Research Advisors: David Shelly, Andrea Llenos, William Yeck, Morgan Moschetti, Paul Earle, Sarah Minson, and Jeanne Hardebeck
Application deadline is November 1, 2022. Potential applicants are strongly encouraged to contact the Research Advisors early and to work with them to develop a suitable proposal.
Please see https://www.usgs.gov/centers/mendenhall for more information on the Mendenhall program and how to apply.
David R. Shelly, Ph.D. (he/him)
U.S. Geological Survey
Geologic Hazards Science Center, Golden, CO
303-273-8659 (office); 650-283-3052 (personal cell)
https://www.usgs.gov/staff-profiles/david-shelly
Teleworking most days (email or cell contacts are best)
Physical Address: 1711 Illinois St., Golden, CO 80401
USPS Address: Box 25046 MS 966, Denver Federal Center, Denver, Colorado 80225-0046