Thread: 2016 AGU Session S022: Operational Earthquake Forecasting: Scientific Advances, Validation and Implementation, Communication and Uptake

Started: 2016-07-24 22:32:28
Last activity: 2016-07-24 22:32:28
Topics: AGU Meetings
Dear Colleagues,

Please consider submitting an abstract to the AGU 2016 special session
#13049 below.

*S022: Operational Earthquake Forecasting: Scientific Advances, Validation
and Implementation, Communication and Uptake*

Earthquakes seldom come alone; they often trigger additional earthquakes
that exacerbate existing crises or indeed initiate a disaster. The recent
M7 April 15, 2016, Kumamoto, Japan earthquake occurred mere days after two
earlier M6 temblors, serving as yet another dramatic example of a so-called
aftershock that proved to be more damaging than the initial mainshock. This
session focuses on recent progress in operational earthquake forecasting
(OEF), which involves the generation and timely dissemination of
authoritative information about time-dependent seismic hazard, with the
purpose of helping communities prepare for earthquakes. We invite
contributions spanning the range of challenges facing OEF. Topics may
include: scientific advances in physical and statistical modelling of
earthquake triggering, clustering and cascading; validation and evaluation
of forecast skill; operationalization and implementation in real-time,
including data access issues and uncertainties; best practices for
communication; and uptake from existing and potential users of operational
forecasts.

*Invited Speakers: *
Sara McBride, GNS Science, New Zealand
Ned Field, USGS Pasadena, USA

*Conveners: *Max Werner, University of Bristol, United Kingdom
Nicholas van der Elst, USGS Pasadena, United States, Matt Gerstenberger,
GNS Science, New ZealandWarner Marzocchi, INGV Rome, Italy

Cross-Listed:

- G - Geodesy
- NH - Natural Hazards
- SI - Societal Impacts and Policy Sciences

Index Terms:
4334 Disaster risk communication
<https://agu.confex.com/agu/fm16/preliminaryview.cgi/start?words=4334 [NATURAL
HAZARDS]
6309 Decision making under uncertainty
<https://agu.confex.com/agu/fm16/preliminaryview.cgi/start?words=6309 [POLICY
SCIENCES]
7212 Earthquake ground motions and engineering seismology
<https://agu.confex.com/agu/fm16/preliminaryview.cgi/start?words=7212
[SEISMOLOGY]
7223 Earthquake interaction, forecasting, and prediction
<https://agu.confex.com/agu/fm16/preliminaryview.cgi/start?words=7223
[SEISMOLOGY]
Best wishes,
Max, Nicholas, Matt and Warner

--
Dr. Maximilian J Werner
Lecturer in Natural Hazards and Risks
School of Earth Sciences | Cabot Institute | University of Bristol
External Fellow | London Mathematical Laboratory
L126 | Wills Memorial Building | Queens Road | Bristol BS8 1RJ | UK
+44 (0) 117 331 5014 | max.werner<at>bristol.ac.uk

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