Thread: Forecasting Aftershock Sequences in the Real World at the SSA annual meeting

Started: 2016-12-21 20:51:31
Last activity: 2016-12-21 20:51:31
Topics: SSA Meetings
Do you work on forecasting earthquakes in aftershock sequences or other
earthquake clusters? If so, we encourage you to submit a presentation to
our session on "Forecasting Aftershock Sequences in the Real World" at the
SSA Annual Meeting in Denver, CO from April 18 to 20, 2017.

Abstract submission is now open on the meeting website: and the deadline is 5:00 PM U.S. Pacific
Standard Time (UTC −0800) on Wednesday 11 January, 2017.

We hope to see you in Denver!

Andy Michael, USGS, USA
Matt Gerstenberger, IGNS, New Zealand
Warner Marzocchi, INGV, Italy

Forecasting Aftershock Sequences in the Real World

Over the last two years, seismologists have produced forecasts for a number
of aftershock sequences including the ongoing Christchurch, New Zealand,
earthquake sequence which began in 2010 with the M7.0 Darfield event, the
2015 M7.8 Gorkha, Nepal, earthquake, the 2016 M7.0 Kumamoto, Japan,
earthquake, the 2016 M6.2 Amatrice, Italy, earthquake, the 2016 M5.8
Pawnee, Oklahoma, United States, earthquake, and earthquake swarms near San
Ramon and Bombay Beach, California, United States. Each sequence has raised
challenging situations for the calculation of earthquake probabilities and
their communication to the public, emergency managers, and other users. As
systems that make these forecasts on a routine basis become operational we
need to capture these lessons in the numerical software and presentation
methods. We invite presentations on the application of earthquake
clustering problems to these real-world situations as well as discussions
of challenges faced in modelling and communication of forecasts; this could
include related advances in statistical seismology and the social science
of communication.

Session Chairs

Andrew Michael <michael<at>>
Matt Gerstenberger <m.gerstenberger<at>>
Warner Marzocchi <warner.marzocchi<at>>

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