Thread: SSA special sesssion on Verification and Validation of Earthquake Occurrence and Hazard Forecasts

Started: 2016-12-28 04:07:08
Last activity: 2016-12-28 04:07:08
Topics: SSA Meetings
Although it appears last in the SSA Meeting's alphabetical special session list, you may be interested in contributing to what should be a very stimulating session:



Verification and Validation of Earthquake Occurrence and Hazard Forecasts



Earthquake occurrence, hazard forecasts (hazard maps) and nowcasts have long lagged behind similar applications, such as weather, economic, or population forecasts and nowcasts, in addressing issues of verification and validation. Validation asks how well the algorithm used to produce the forecast implements the conceptual model (have we built the model right?). Verification asks how well the model forecasts the observations that actually occur (have we built the right model?). In recent years, this situation has been changing, in part via adopting ideas from other forecasting applications. We invite papers dealing with issues such as defining forecast goals, improving forecasts with new data or methodology, testing forecasts against observations, assessing forecast uncertainties, and better using forecasts for hazard mitigation.



Seth Stein <seth<at>earth.northwestern.edu>
John Rundle <john.b.rundle<at>gmail.com>
Mark Petersen <mpetersen<at>usgs.gov>



The deadline is January 11th, 2017; the website is http://meetings.seismosoc.org/<https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=http-3A__meetings.seismosoc.org_&d=CwMFaQ&c=yHlS04HhBraes5BQ9ueu5zKhE7rtNXt_d012z2PA6ws&r=CHBgaIG-gBT9w3ovsTYc65oxSe3NAydHEm-rMMQIwLc&m=k8MpGxTYiGzsfR8lW3LlpeQUdlFpGkgts26bTzLVn5Y&s=jco9CtbchiGqGGA-YAHw-dIKdc9PT7xyADHm1Lnc0RA&e=



?Seth Stein, William Deering Professor

Department of Earth & Planetary Sciences and Institute for Policy Research
Northwestern University?
http://www.earth.northwestern.edu/people/seth

Book: Playing against Nature: Integrating Science and Economics to Mitigate Natural Hazards in an Uncertain World
http://www.wiley.com/WileyCDA/WileyTitle/productCd-1118620828.html
https://eos.org/project-updates/exploring-natural-hazard-policies-with-bike-helmets-and-bus-fares

Overview of MidContinent Rift Project results, publications, and information for park interpreters:
https://eos.org/features/new-insights-into-north-americas-midcontine

Video: Lake Superior and the Midcontinent Rift: the billion year story?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w4kkKx-Wcoo

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