Thread: vSSA2021: Constructing and Testing Regional and Global Earthquake Forecasts

Started: 2021-01-07 06:44:47
Last activity: 2021-01-07 06:44:47
Topics: SSA Meetings
Dear Colleagues,

Please consider submitting your abstract to the session "Constructing and Testing Regional and Global Earthquake Forecasts" at the virtual SSA meeting in April 2021. We hope to stimulate debate around the development and evaluation of probabilistic earthquake forecasts and their derived produces (hazard) from regional to global scales.

Constructing and Testing Regional and Global Earthquake Forecasts

Regional and global earthquake rate and rupture forecasts underpin seismic hazard and risk assessments. They can also serve to test critical hypotheses about seismogenesis, including earthquake nucleation, rupture, interaction and variations of their characteristics with tectonic setting. Global models offer greater testability than regional models because of the larger and more frequent earthquakes. Initiatives to construct and test global models have been led by the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Foundation, the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC), the European H2020 project RISE, re/insurance interests and others. Regional models, on the other hand, benefit from more available and higher resolution datasets, from dense geological records to waveform-similarity enhanced catalogs and long historical catalogs that can be exploited to express bespoke hypotheses, such as spatio-temporal b-value variations, foreshock patterns, Coulomb stress transfer, geodetically detected aseismic slip or fault-based rupture forecasts. Regional and national models are more commonly constructed and can underpin national seismic hazard models and require testing at lower magnitudes to increase test data. We welcome contributions that construct and test probabilistic earthquake forecast models and algorithms from regional via national to global scales. Submissions may include hypothesis-generating research about what controls earthquake potential but should also develop plans for testing prospectively. We also seek submissions that build on vetted earthquake forecasts to construct seismic hazard and risk models, particularly at global scales.

Maximilian Werner, University of Bristol (max.werner<at>
David Jackson, University of California, Los Angeles (djackson<at>
Danijel Schorlemmer, GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences (ds<at>

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